Risk management, warfare and the unmeasured gaps.
Studies show that states expose their own civilians and soldiers and enemy noncombatants to varying levels of risk. The most known is sociologist Martin Shaw's argument that the new Western way of war in the post-Vietnam era is characterized by the transfer of risk from soldiers to enemy noncombatants to reduce the military casualties and, by implication, the political costs stemming from the growing social sensitivity to casualties domestically.1
However, scholarly gaps still remain. Among them, variations in risk transfer have not been sufficiently measured and therefore conclusions—whether militaries shift or take risks— are largely unsupported empirically.
I tried to partly bridge this and other gaps in my new book, Whose Life Is Worth More?. Using empirical data drawn from the US, Britain, and Israel—democracies involved in prolonged warfare, in which policy-makers confront domestic constraints on the use of force—the book shows how states develop hierarchies of risk and death, an ordered scale of value that they apply to the lives of their soldiers relative to the lives of their civilians and enemy noncombatants. In the most interesting circumstances, states compensate for the aversion to sacrifice by attempting to increase the legitimacy of using aggressive fire to shift risk from their own soldiers onto enemy civilians.
Transfer of risk occurs when forces attack the enemy from a distance by using excessive lethality through artillery, aircraft, drones, and other means, sometimes with limited discrimination between combatants and noncombatants. Alternatively, exercising greater caution to avoid civilian casualties, for example, by adopting more restrictive rules of engagement to better discriminate between combatants and noncombatants, will likely increase the danger to soldiers.
Continue reading "Challenging the Myth of Respecting Noncombatant Immunity" »