Stanford University Press Blog

From Drugs to Civil War: the New Gateway Effect

We all know that drug trafficking can be a deadly business. But can drug trafficking set the precedent for even larger conflict—that is, civil war?

That’s the question that former journalist Jonathan Marshall set out to answer in his newly released book The Lebanese Connection. Looking specifically at Lebanon in the lead up to its 15-year civil war, Marshall traces out how the country’s fledgling drug trade in the 1970s turned the country into a narco-state and financed the war. In other words: there was a sure connection between drugs and civil war in Lebanon—and Marshall warns that that connection can apply to any state.

And that makes modern-day drug trafficking in Afghanistan and Mexico all the more urgent. Afghanistan leads the world in opium production, as it has for the past two decades. Mexico’s drug war has regularly peppered American news sources with brutal images and chilling stories, and has become a party platform priority as the July 1 presidential election draws near. This isn’t just about the drugs anymore—there’s a lot at stake.       

 

Some food for thought:

• “Breaking the narco-state in Afghanistan is essential, or all else will fail.” The New York Times recently ran an article that explains why fighting the opium industry in Afghanistan is of upmost importance.
• The top three contenders for the Mexican presidency have all declared domestic-centered approaches to the drug war to be a priority over curbing drug trafficking into the U.S. See the NYT article here.
• And check out Marshall’s book The Lebanese Connection here. 

 

The low down on Egypt's presidential elections

This Saturday, Egypt will hold the final round of its first presidential elections since ex-President Mubarak stepped down in 2011—and the media is rife with speculation on how it will go.

In this podcast by news blog The Arabist, four Egypt scholars—including our recent author Joshua Stacher—sit down to tell us what we need to know about the unfolding events in Egypt and what the U.S. has to do with it.

The conclusion is a bit of a downer: no matter what happens this weekend, there’s not going to be a dramatic change from authoritarianism to democracy in Egypt. In other words, don’t hold your breath for a radical shift to democracy.

Joshua Stacher, who teaches and researches Middle Eastern politics at Kent State University, chalks this up to Egypt’s centralized political power structure—aka its executive autonomy, which has given the political elite the flexibility to navigate the revolution surprisingly well. In his latest book Adaptable Autocrats: Regime Power in Egypt and Syria, Stacher shows that Egypt is actually experiencing a relatively swift and smooth transfer of power—especially in comparison to nearby Syria, a decentralized system of power, which is struggling through a full-scale civil war as its president hangs on.

For those confused by what we should think of the unfolding events in the Arab world, Stacher puts it this way: the past defines the present. Why did Egypt experience an uprising remarkably less bloody than the one in Syria? The answer may be in the countries’ political structures: Egypt’s political structure is significantly more centralized than Syria's, and that makes a world of difference when it comes to how a regime change will play out. 

In that case…if the past defines the present, and today is tomorrow’s past... then we’ll be anxiously watching out for how the Egyptian elections turn out this weekend.

 

In the meantime, read an excerpt from Stacher’s book.

Check out more information about Stacher’s book Adaptable Autocrats. 

Listen to some nuggets from the podcast:

• What the possible legal dissolution of the parliament means for the elections (around 13:00)
• Speculation on the election’s outcomes (around 16:00)
• What potential the revolution still has to achieve its demands (from 21:50)
• Josh Stacher speaks on the role of the U.S. in Egypt—and how U.S. policy supports the counterrevolutionaries (from 34:30). For more on this topic, see this interview hosted by Stacher.
• About that anti-spy video aired on Egyptian televisions… (from 52:28)

 

Stanford University Press Authors Gather with Other Middle East Experts for Conference on "Democratic Transition in Egypt" at Stanford

The recent democratic uprisings and their reverberations throughout the Arab world changed the perceptions of many in the West that this region was immune to social activism and change from within.  Stanford University Press is pleased to announce two new titles, Social Movements, Mobilization, and Contestation in the Middle East and North Africa, edited by Joel Beinin and Frédéric Vairel, and Autumn of Dictatorship: Fiscal Crisis and Political Change under Mubarek, by Samer Soliman, that will contribute to and inform our understanding of the nature and history of social movements in Egypt.  What’s more, the authors of these important books are just two of several distinguished scholars who will gather at Stanford on Friday, April 29 in the Bechtel Conference Center for a one-day conference entitled "Democratic Transition in Egypt,"  sponsored by the Program on Arab Reform and Democracy at the Center on Democracy, Development and the Rule of Law.   This event, co-sponsored by the Abbasi Program in Islamic Studies at Stanford University, will focus on Egypt's current revolutionary period, and brings to Stanford leading Egypt academics from American, European, and Egyptian universities and think tanks. 

Too frequently written off as culturally defined by Islam, strongly anti-Western, and uniquely susceptible to irrational political radicalism, authoritarianism, and terrorism—the Middle East and North Africa (specifically Egypt, Lebanon, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey) are rarely considered as sites of social and political mobilization.  However, in Social Movements, Mobilization, and Contestation in the Middle East and North Africa, Joel Beinin and Frédéric Vairel reveal a rich array of mobilizations that neither lead inexorably toward democratization nor degenerate into violence. 

In Autumn of Dictatorship: Fiscal Crisis and Political Change under Mubarek, Samer Soliman argues that protest is nothing new to Egypt, and labor activism and political activism, most notably the Kifaya (Enough) movement, have increased dramatically over recent years. In hindsight, it is the durability of the Mubarak regime, not its sudden loss of legitimacy that should be more surprising. Though many have turned to social media for explanation of the events, in this book, Samer Soliman follows the age-old adage—follow the money. 

Over the last thirty years, the Egyptian state has increasingly given its citizens less money and fewer social benefits while simultaneously demanding more taxes and resources. This has lead to a weakened state—deteriorating public services, low levels of law enforcement, poor opportunities for employment and economic development—while simultaneously inflated the security machine that sustains the authoritarian regime. Studying the regime from the point of view of its deeds rather than its discourse, this book tackles the relationship between fiscal crisis and political change in Egypt.

 About the Authors:

Joel Beinin is Donald J. McLachlan Professor of History at Stanford University, and a past president of the Middle East Studies Association of North America. Frédéric Vairel is Assistant Professor of Political Studies at the University of Ottawa.

 Samer Soliman is Assistant Professor of Political Economy and Political Science at the American University in Cairo. An activist for human rights and democratic politics, he is also a frequent columnist in the Egyptian media and a founder and editor of Al-Bosla a radical democratic publication.

Forthcoming Event

Don't miss Shahla Talebi discussing her haunting memoir of imprisonment in Iran, Ghosts of Revolution, on Monday April 11 at Changing Hands in Tempe, AZ.

  
Hailed as "trenchant" and "poised" by Kirkus Reviews, Ghosts of Revolution is Talebi's astonishing story, which manages to combine a deeply personal account with a detailed historical and political narrative of violence, torture, trauma, the power of memory, survival and human resilience.

 Talebi points us away from assumptions and oversimplification: this is a story of complex issues, where it is impossible to make sweeping judgments about anything, and where the boundaries between good and evil are blurred.  Her singular position as a survivor of two externally and ideologically very different regimes affords her an extraordinary perspective from which to reflect on the use of imprisonment and torture as a means to a political end—not just in the “Islamic State,” but elsewhere around the world, and even in our own back yard.

"Why are we there?"

Eight years after the US-led invasion and occupation of Iraq, Dan Caldwell answers the question put to him by so many Americans, both civilians and service people alike: "Why are we there?" The wars in Afghanistan and Iraq have become so much a part of our post-9/11 lives that most Americans no longer have a clear, accurate understanding of their origins—much less how and why the U.S. became so involved in the affairs of Pakistan.  And while there have been many books on each of these wars, there has been no single-volume resource to which readers can turn for a more holistic view of these wars and their inter-relationship.  Dan Caldwell, Distinguished Professor of Political Science at Pepperdine University, aims to rectify that in his new book, Vortex of Conflict: U.S. Policy Toward Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Iraq (Stanford University Press, April 15, 2011, $25.95).  

Caldwell begins by giving the reader a clear history of U.S. foreign policy pre-1979, taking us through the Revolution in Iran, the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, the first Gulf War, the rise of Al Qaeda, the emergence of “the Bush Doctrine” and other significant events.  Within this context, he then outlines and analyzes the major issues of the two wars, including intelligence quality, military operations, U.S. relations with allies, the shift from a conventional to a counterinsurgency strategy, the military surges in Afghanistan and Pakistan, and postwar reconstruction.  He concludes by summing up key lessons to be learned from the wars and their application to future conflicts. 

Among the issues Caldwell addresses: 

• While the Bush administration used this issue as the "least common denominator" rationale for the invasion, prior to the United States invaded Iraq on March 19, 2003, virtually all experts—American and non-American—believed that Iraq had WMD.
• By diverting vital resources from U. S. effort in Afghanistan, the invasion of Iraq dissipated the effort to defeat al Qaeda and the Taliban, making the overall problem of terrorism worse rather than better. 
• With its population of 175 million, its possession of nuclear weapons, and its position contiguous to Afghanistan and India, Pakistan is the most important and dangerous country in the world at the present time.
• The country that gained the most from the Iraq war was Iran.
• Technology has played a key role in the war on terror, Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Iraq.  The use of shoulder-fired surface-to-air missiles in the Soviet-Afghanistan war; the internet enabled al Qaeda to communicate and recruit new followers; and now pilotless drones in Afghanistan and Pakistan enable the U.S. and Pakistan to locate, track, and attack those who support terrorism. 
• Caldwell describes the major errors of Ambassador Paul Bremer's tenure in Iraq: de-Baathification, disbanding Iraqi security and military forces, and postponing the return of sovereign control of the government to Iraq. 
• Caldwell traces the thinking of General David Petraeus from his Princeton doctoral dissertation on the lessons of the Vietnam War to supervising the revision of the Army-Marine Corps counterinsurgency manual to his command of the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq and Central Command. 
• Vortex of Conflict traces the historical development of relations between the United States and the Islamic world, Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Iraq, and contains a comprehensive chronology of the major international events since the 9/11 attacks. 

Vortex of Conflict is the first, accessible, one-volume resource for anyone who wishes to understand why and how the U.S. became involved in these two wars—and in the affairs of Pakistan—concurrently.  It will stand as the comprehensive reference work for general readers seeking a road map to the conflicts, for students looking for analysis and elucidation of the relevant data, and for veterans and their families seeking to better understand their own experience. 

About the Author:  Dan Caldwell is Distinguished Professor of Political Science at Pepperdine University. Previously, he held positions at the Naval Postgraduate School in Monterey, California, Brown University, and the Executive Office of the President in Washington, D.C. His books include American-Soviet Relations, The Dynamics of Domestic Politics of Arms Control, World Politics and You, and Seeking Security in an Insecure World. He is a member of the Council on Foreign Relations and Chair of the Council's Academic Outreach Initiative.

Further Background Reading on Egypt: Let's Dig a Little Deeper

One reason Egypt's uprising seems to have taken most of the world by surprise is the lack of any major political unrest in the last 30 years.  For a deeper understanding of the long history of authoritarian rule in the Middle East, turn to Debating Arab Authoritarianism: Dynamics and Durability in Nondemocratic Regimes, which includes essays that consider the ongoing political dynamics and the region and show how Arab regimes have retained their power despite ongoing transformations in societal, political, and economic spheres.

Another surprising factor is the apparent absence of any one leader of the protests.  Instead, the focus has largely been on Egypt's middle class youth (60% of Egypt's population is under 30).  Frances Hasso explores the growing frustration of Egypt's young people, many of whom are unemployed or underemployed and thus unable to marry or start a family, in Consuming Desires: Family Crisis and the State in the Middle East 

Finally, later this spring Joel Beinin and Frederic Vairel examine social movements, political opportunity, and collective action in their forthcoming book, Social Movements, Mobilization, and Contestation in the Middle East and North Africa.  For a look at how precisely these social movements have influence the current uprising, see Joel Beinin's Egypt at the Tipping Point?  in a January 31, 2011 posting on Foreign Policy's "Middle East Channel." 

Egypt in Crisis: A Little Background Reading

Following the Egyptian Protest is now as easy as checking your Twitter feed (or your Facebook account), but for deep background reading on how and why the current situation evolved--and where it might be headed--we suggest a trio of critical and insightful works to give you the back story:

Asef Bayat's MAKING ISLAM DEMOCRATIC: Social Movements and the Post-Islamist Turn examines in detail those social organizations (student, women, and youth groups) and movements that have used religion to unleash social and political change, either to legitimize authoritarian rule or, in contrast, to construct an inclusive faith that embraces a democratic polity. Bayat provides a fresh analysis of how Iran's revolution has evolved into the pervasive, post-Islamist reform movement of the early twenty-first century, which in turn offers a fascinating lens through which to view the contemporary and current situations in Egypt.  He picks up this theme of the importance of social movements in LIFE AS POLITICS: How Ordinary People Change the Middle East.  For a direct application of these themes to the current crisis, read his latest post in Foreign Policy, A New Arab Street in Post-Islamist Times.

Wondering about the future of Egypt?  Might change bring about democracy, tolerance, and pluralism? In THE CHALLENGE OF POLITICAL ISLAM: Non-Muslims and the Egyptian State, Rachel M. Scott looks at the Muslim Brotherhood and the Coptic Christian community to see how/whether non-Muslims are integrated as citizens. While the Muslim Brotherhood, members of which Scott interviewed extensively, hasn't taken a lead in these protests, their positions and voices on democracy and pluralism--including a vision of Islamic citizenship more inclusive of non-Muslims--are worth considering. 

The Roots of Israel's Obsession with Iran

In an interview with Swati Pandey of Zocalo Public Square, Israeli scholar, Hagai Ram and author of  Iranophobia: The Logic of an Israeli Obsession,  remarks that he became "increasingly disenchanted" with the Israeli ways of understanding Iran, "While there are many good reasons for the Jewish state to be apprehensive of the Islamic republic, I felt there was also a great deal of irrationality involved in that apprehension, and it is the cultural roots of that irrationality I sought to investigate in my book."  Read the full interview here. The book steps back from all-too-common geopolitical analyses to show that Israel's disagreements with Iran are as much a product of shared cultural trajectories and entangled histories as they are strategic concerns and political differences.  In an article in Informed Comment, Ram discusses how Israel has time and again (ab)used the specter of the “Iranian threat” in order to  divert attention from its own oversights,  such as the war crimes associated with its military strike in Gaza earlier in the year, and the continuation of the state-sanctioned apartheid regime in the Palestinian territories.

Pardis Mahdavi on elections in Iran and the Role of Women

Commenting on the continued protests surrounding the disputed presidential election in Iran, Pardis Mahadavi, author of Passionate Uprisings Iran's Sexual Revolution writes:

"Earlier today (Friday, June 17) thousands of protesters marched the streets of Tehran, pumping their fists into the air and chanting “Coup! Government resignation”. Some wore green (to indicate their allegiance to Mir Hossein Moussavi) many did not. Up until now, much of the recent media depictions of the situation in Iran paint a picture of a stolen election, and a discontented public demanding a recount at least, and the installation of their preferred candidate. While the election has presented frustrated Iranians with a catalyst and a reason to protest, what we are witnessing in Iran is not a simple protest over election fraud. Rather, disenchantment with the regime, and the desire to mobilize a civil rights type movement in Iran has been building for many years. This election, the overt nature of repression and fraudulent behavior has given many people the window they were looking for to mobilize a movement that goes beyond election politics. The protesters want change: they want to change the system of Islamic jurisprudence, and fundamentally, they want their rights back. While some might see the protests as “calming down” or “dying down”, the reality is that people have tasted the sweetness of voicing their discontent, and they have no plans of backing down easily."

From advocating for polygamy to enforcing the "morality police," Ahmadinejad has women in Iran fighting for their rights. An article in Salon.com takes a look at the women protesters and their courage, from verbal protest to dying in the streets, as was the case for Neda Agha-Soltani. who has become a symbol for the feminist movement. This article points out that though these types of protests have been going on for decades, this one is different because the world is watching.

Mahadavi remarks in this article, "There is a bit of neoliberal rhetoric. You know, we need to save these women, they're repressed and don't know it,' which is not the case. These women are finding agency in all sorts of pockets, in all sorts of ways. We can identify, but because the situation is so much more complicated than we realize, we really can't understand," she says.

Mahdavi's book Passionate Uprisings tells the stories of Iran's youth and their intertwined quests for sexual freedom, political reform, and a better future – but not a future without risk. The young people of Iran face serious consequences for their attempts to change their social atmosphere. Mahdavi's book shows how sexual politics and youth culture is changing the course of Iranian politics. 

Palestinian Identity in the Israeli Army: Fighting on the the wrong side?

Surrounded, by Rhoda Ann Kanaaneh, takes a close look at the Palestinians who choose to serve in the Israeli army. It takes up the question of why they join and how it reflects the cultural interaction between the Israelis and Arabs in Israel . In the last week, the book was reviewed in both  Jordan Times and the Jerusalem Post in Israel. It is a statement of the social and political implications of Arabs in Israel as a whole, even though it focuses on a small percentage of Palestinians who choose to fight for the Israeli army.

Surrounded contains over 70 interviews with soldiers and provides a unique perspective on their experiences in acceptance and integration into the Israeli military. Kanaaneh not only provides insights into how nationalism factors into wars and why they are fought, but provides an interesting viewpoint by which to view the ethnic tension and relations between Palestinians and Israelis. She first gives the reader a sense of what it is to live as an Arab in Israel and the identity issues that Arabs struggle with when living there. With the many different categories that Israeli Arabs identify with (Muslim, Druze, Christian), how do these soldiers view their relationship with a volatile and fractured state?

Kanaaneh grapples with these questions of identity as she assesses the status of the Arab soldiers in their own communities and compares the situation of the Palestinians in Israel not only with other Palestinians in West Bank and Gaza strip but with other colonial situations around the globe: Indians who served in the British army, Buffalo soldiers in America, and, more recently, the US speeding up citizenship processing for green card holders who served in Iraq. Throughout the book, questions of conflicted identity are highlighted, as are the relationships between ethnic discrimination and military conflict -- issues that are not just pertinent to Arabs and Israelis but of truly universal interest.