Stanford University Press Blog

Being "smart on crime," Mona Lynch on Arizona's corrections budget

With the economic pitfalls of the past few years still tightening state budgets across the U.S., every dollar counts. There are many factors contributing to state budgets, and in Arizona, prison sentencing has become a hot topic in budget reform. A recent article in azfamily.com asks "Could sentencing reform save the state money, help justice system?"

According to the article, over 10 percent of Arizona’s state budget will go to corrections next year because of the increase of sentencing happening in the state. Mona Lynch, author of Sunbelt Justice has studied the Arizona state system and explains that this increase in sentencing happened because power was taken out of judicial hands and given to prosecutors.  Lynch's book looks at the development of Arizona's punishment politics, policies, and practices, and brings to light just how and why we have become a mass incarceration nation. With her years of research in the area, Lynch suggests that the answer to the sentencing budget woes of Arizona lie not in being tough on crime but “’smart on crime’, spending dollars where they'll have the most impact.” With the state and nation’s budget the way it is, perhaps they’ll take her advice.

Read the full article on azfamily.com here.

Is a global floor possible? Heymann on working conditions around the world

There have been many theories and countless myths about the economic costs of providing good working conditions around the world This despite the fact that we have had little data to compare costs  and related benefits across different countries.  Working with a team of international researchers, Jody Heyman (and coauthor Alison Earle) of Raising the Global Floor, worked to fix that.  The book compares data from  190 countries, finally giving us a comprehensive look at working conditions around the globe. In recent interviews with ZÓcalo and the Diane Rehm show, Heymann uses her research to answer previously unanswerable questions, most importantly: What can we do to make a global floor possible?

 Previous theories about good working conditions have held that providing benefits in the workplace puts an upward pressure on prices and can be bad for a company’s, or a nation’s, competitiveness leading to an increase in unemployment. According to Heymann, “It turns out they’re just not factually true.”  She found that most countries actually do provide basic benefits like sick leave, including 14 of the 15 most competitive countries (all except the U.S.) However, many developing countries are behind, and even some of the world’s top competitors, like the U.S., have neglected to provide very basic needs to workers.

On the Diane Rehm Show, Heymann mentioned that one reason for the rapid spread of the H1N1 flu in the U.S. early last year may have been that in the absence of sick leave people continued to work even though they were sick, allowing the disease to spread quickly. Over 60 million Americans are currently without paid sick leave, according to Heymann, making the U.S. extremely behind other top competitive economies countries in that respect.

Overall, the research in the book supports the fact that the countries that flourish the most have provided workers with at least some benefits, (excluding the U.S.) Though our own country seems to be lagging in this respect, Heymann is optimistic about our future. When identifying what kinds of conditions would be needed for a global floor, Heymann makes it clear that things like paid sick leave for all, and annual family leave are beneficial for both workers and businesses.

So, is a global floor what we need for a better economy? Perhaps, according to Heymann’s findings, “the answer is yes.”

Author James March named Gurus' Guru by The Economist

James March has been named one of the gurus in a list complied by The Economist Guide to Management Ideas and Gurus, announced in an article in the Economist. We congratulate James March (author of Explorations in Organizations and The Dynamics of Rules: Changes in Written Organizational Codes) on this much deserved accolade. He is author of ideas, like satisficing, which has become part of the vocabulary across the social sciences and business.  It is the idea that we as consumers and managers go for the less-than-rational decision because we are restricted by human and organizational limitations (to mention two broad factors). As the Economist points out, March comes up with " colorful metaphors"  in which to package his theories, for instance, the "garbage-can" theory of organizational decision-making, which (once again) emphasizes the chaotic nature  in which problems are tackled and solutions assigned in organizations.  The solutions may not address the problems for which they were designed. And, what was the problem? Sound familiar?  Anybody who has ever worked for a company of any size can relate to that.  His other inventive metaphors include "technology as foolishness" and the "hot-stove effect."

With his full embrace of  organizations as both rule-based and imperfectly adaptive and complex systems, it is no wonder that Professor March finds much inspiration in poetry and in the work of Cervantes.  His most recent book with SUP, Explorations in Organizations, considers theories of organizational action, the ways in which organizations continue to adapt, and the uses of literature in the study of organizations.

California - A nation-state within a state?

In a recent broadcast of the radio show Which Way, LA? Stanford University Press authors Jim Flanigan - Smile Southern California, You’re the Center of the Universe - and Abe Lowenthal - Global California, Rising to the Cosmopolitan Challenge -  share their insights on the current and future prospects for California. Can the most prosperous state in the US , the hub of agriculture, industry and innovation be regarded as a nation-state?

For Abe Lowenthal the answer is a resounding "Yes." Lowenthal’s ideas focus on the fact that California has all the qualities of an internationally active nation-state but lacks the ability to use them in order to further their international interests. Even though “California was born with international DNA" as he put it, it is inwardly focused.  The state has the opportunity to influence the federal government, has a large congressional delegation, and has the most internationally diverse population in the country, and has not harnessed the tools to become an actor on the international stage.

Although Flanigan’s book is focused on southern California, he makes the point that global trade is central to California’s economy in particular (the state is the country’s largest exporter and importer of goods and services) and that the state is crucial in developing US trade links with Latin America and China. With a growing population due to second generation immigrants, an entrepreneurial economy, and the largest university research complex in the country, California is primed for interacting at an international level. 

Both Flanigan and Lowenthal agree that the political elites of California should come together to leverage the state’s global clout rather than remaining partisan and focused on local issues only. Even in the current recession, California has the capacity to yield a lot of influence.

Flanigan leaves us with a reassuring note, in light of the current economic downturn. He admits that trade may be down and deficits high, but China and other Asian developing countries are not going to stop development. They’re going to continue to develop, and we’re going to have a role in it. Flanigan assures us that the economy and trade of California flourished wildly in the past and even though it’s at a standstill now, “you know it’ll come back.”

"Global California" delivers a truly global message.

In a recent review from the USC Center on Public diplomacy, author Abraham Lowenthal is recognized for his “clearly organized and pleasantly written” book Global California: Rising to the Cosmopolitan Challenge.

Reviewer Richard Langhorne, professor at Rutgers University, commends the book for its vast amount of information that he says “Californians will certainly, and others should, find very convenient to have set out between the covers of a single book.” Langhorne, impressed with the depth of  evidence presented by Lowenthal, also gives a detailed synopsis of the book.

Lowenthal dedicates a large part of the book to describing the ways in which California is linked to global culture and economy, pointing out the various advantages of specific regions within California, like LA, San Francisco, and San Diego. For example, San Diego’s proximity to a foreign country puts it in prime position for conducting international relations.

The state remains at the cutting edge of the high tech economy. With its dominance of cinema, television, music and multimedia, California exerts global influence. In turn Silicon Valley and Hollywood depend on international markets, capital and talent. California’s economic dynamism rests on immigrants, both highly skilled and less skilled.

But for all it’s geopolitical assets, California lacks the organizational systems to utilize their international connections effectively. The book is focused on how California and its citizens can resolve this problem and participate in the global arena.

As reviewer Langhorne points out, “It would be difficult to quarrel with either the material, the argument or the conclusions of this thoroughly well organized book.” In the end this reviewer finds that Global California delivers a useful statement which can be heeded not only by California but by regions all around the world.

Southern California as a Blueprint for Obama's Administration

Smile Southern California, You're the Center of the Universe a recent book by James Flanigan, with its sunny cover and celebration of the prosperity of the region, is at first glance wildly at odds with our current economic recession and California’s enormous budget deficit (somewhere around $16 billion, at the latest estimate). James Srodes, a financial journalist at the Washington times, points out in a recent review that at first it may seem as if this book was only relevant before economic crisis; because in the time it has taken to be written and published, California has suffered the same downfalls as all the other states and in fact currently has the worst budget deficit of all the states. He goes on to say that this is not a negation of the importance of Flanigans work. In fact, the book can act as a  sort of blue print for how a society can rise and prosper within the quickly changing international arena.

"First, there is international trade, which is now a leading contributor to the U.S.  GDP in a world economy swelled by billions of new participants — principally the enormous populations of Asia, Latin America and Eastern Europe. In today's world, however, industries and countries do not merely exchange goods and services but collaborate in producing them. This is a new paradigm and a richer exchange.” (Flanigan)

No matter what criticisms may come to southern California, Flanigan makes clear that the region is a picture of globalization and flourishing trade; not to mention the fact that Southern California has become a modern “Ellis island” in terms of immigration.

"Southern California became the new Ellis Island and reaped economic energy as immigrants started businesses.” (Flanigan)

California has transformed from having a base of government funded science and technology research centers to relying on a knowledge-driven economy supported by the many world-class research universities of California; and the author shows that the research provided by these institutions can pave the way for the new administration in its quest to come out of this economic slump. Flanigan’s research itself certainly warrants national attention, and, as Srodes points out, can be used to “offer a direction that Mr. Obama and his planners would do well to consider — and promptly.”

Election Results Post-Mortem from Ray Fair

In a follow up to the post from Nov. 3, Ray Fair writes:

The vote equation did well in predicting the 2008 election. The following chart lists the nine predictions that were made from November 1, 2006, through October 30, 2008. The most important prediction from the point of view of judging the vote equation is the last one, which uses the actual economic values (actual as of October 30, 2008). The two-party vote was 53.0 percent for Obama and 47.0 percent for McCain.

Nine Predictions from the Vote Equation      


                 Dem.--Rep.    GROWTH    INFLATION  GOODNEWS   ERROR

Actual           53.0--47.0     0.22        2.88        3

Nov.  1, 2006    53.5--46.5     1.8         3.6         1      -0.5

Jan. 31, 2007    53.4--46.6     1.7         3.4         1      -0.4

Apr. 27, 2007    53.2--46.8     1.9         3.3         1      -0.2

July 27, 2007    52.0--48.0     2.2         3.5         2       1.0

Oct. 31, 2007    51.9--48.1     2.2         3.3         2       1.1

Jan. 31, 2008    52.0--48.0     1.8         3.1         2       1.0

Apr. 30, 2008    52.2--47.8     1.5         3.0         2       0.8

July 31, 2008    51.5--48.5     1.0         3.0         3       1.5

Oct. 30, 2008    51.9--48.1     0.22        2.88        3       1.1

One feature of the predictions is that they did not change much across time. On July 27, 2007, the NIPA data revisions led to one more good news quarter, as did the July 31, 2008, data revisions. Other things being equal, each additional good news quarter leads to an increase in the incumbent (Republican) vote share of 1.075 percentage points. The predictions for the Republicans varied from 46.5 to 48.5 across this two-year period.

Another feature of the predictions is that they are all fairly accurate. The errors are well within the standard error of the equation of 2.5. In the final analysis the error was 1.1. In general, even two years before the election the equation was giving a fairly accurate view of the election outcome.

The website for the vote equation is: http://fairmodel.econ.yale.edu/vote2008/index2.htm

Ray Fair Predicts Obama Will Win At Least 52% of the Two-Party Popular Vote

Professor Ray Fair who published Predicting Presidential Elections And Other Things has called the winner for every election since since he started predicting in 1978 (with the exception of 1992).  So we should listen carefully to what he has to say this time around.

In an email earlier today Fair writes, "My work explaining voting behavior suggests that the economy has an important influence on votes for president. If the economy is good, voters are more likely to vote for the incumbent party, and vice-versa if the economy is bad. For the current election the Republican party is the incumbent party and the economy is bad. Not surprisingly, my vote equation predicts that McCain will lose. It predicts that he will get about 48 percent of the two-party vote. The economic data that the equation uses for this prediction end in September, and the economic news in October has been really bad. This suggests that McCain may do worse that the vote equation is predicting he will do, since voters may be influenced by the October events."

A government report released earlier this week confirmed that the American economy will see a recession in 2008. Families across the country are facing foreclosure on their homes, and the dollar is at record lows.  In an article in The Chronicle Review, David Glenn asks why presidential candidates, especially Republicans, still propose tax cuts based on the now-debunked supply-side economic theory:

The hopes of the supply-side theorists of the 1970s, who proposed that revenue would often rise after tax cuts, have been thoroughly dashed by the last 30 years. Federal revenue fell after Ronald Reagan's 1981 tax cuts and again after George W. Bush's 2001 cuts. The vast majority of economists now say that tax cuts must be matched by spending cuts, or deficits will ensue.

For an answer, he turns to The Permanent Tax Revolt: How the Property Tax Transformed American Politics, released this week by Stanford University Press. Author Isaac William Martin argues that “Republican political leaders (falsely but successfully) interpreted Proposition 13's success in California in 1978 as a broad mandate for cutting income taxes as well as property taxes,” a policy that has shaped and symbolized the party every since.

Martin’s showcasing of how the Republican Party came to so deeply associate itself with tax cuts helps us understand why President Bush stands so firmly by his economic policies in the face of economic upheaval. 

Bosnia, Afghanistan and Iraq: Are Reconstruction Projects Worth it?

What is the success (or put it another way, the failure) rate of US-led efforts to export democracy and reconstruction projects in foreign countries? In his new book, After War, Christopher Coyne compares reconstruction projects from West Germany and Japan (after World War II) to more current examples in Haiti, Bosnia, Afghanistan, and Iraq. Coyne's analysis shows that, in general, the odds of failure in these operations have been all too high (without taking account of the obvious differences in political motivations across these projects). Of course, this comes as no surprise to even a casual political observer these days. But what is startling, as Coyne's analysis reveals, is how grim the numbers look. The US success rate is at a mere 28% after five years (roughly the length of the current operation in Iraq). The picture improves only slightly to 39 percent after 15 years (presumably long after direct US involvement in the country's affairs has ended). Tyler Cowen cites these numbers in a discussion of the book on the blog, Marginal Revolution. And writing for the Atlantic, Matthew Yglesias points out that these outcomes should give us pause before we undertake armed democratization projects against countries that are labeled "dubiously democratic" by the U.S. state department.

So how does one alter expectations on the ground to make the reconstruction "game" a cooperative one and at an early stage in operations? Coyne invokes an economic argument to make the point that successful social change requires finding and establishing a set of incentives that would make citizens prefer a liberal democratic order over available alternatives. He remarks "€œoccupying regimes can increase their chances of success if they create a new set of opportunities that were not there prior to the occupation. These opportunities might include the ability to vote, open a business, worship in the church of one'€™s choice, or utilize the legal system, among other possibilities." Professor Coyne will be giving a public lecture on this book at the Cato Institute on November 26th.